2026 Charleston Construction Forecast: Why 2026 is the “Year of the Custom Build”

2026 Forecast at a Glance

• Market Stabilization: We are entering a “Great Reset” where the market is shifting from a frantic boom to a more sustainable “selection market” with better inventory for buyers.
• Digital & Modular Growth: Construction is getting smarter with a 20% increase in modular building and the widespread adoption of Digital Twin technology for project management.
• Sustainability Focus: Building in the Lowcountry now requires a “Climate-First” approach, prioritizing elevated structures and materials designed for high humidity and coastal resilience.
• Infrastructure Impact: Major projects, including the Lowcountry Lowline and I-526 improvements, are set to redefine property values and accessibility across the peninsula.

As we move through the final weeks of 2025, the question on every Charleston homeowner’s mind is: “Should I wait, or is 2026 finally the year to build?”

For the last two years, the Lowcountry real estate market has felt like it was holding its breath. High interest rates created a “lock-in effect,” where homeowners were reluctant to sell, and buyers were hesitant to commit. But as we look toward 2026, the data suggests the wait is over.

At Stono Construction, we’re seeing a significant shift in the landscape. Here is why 2026 is shaping up to be the most strategic year in a decade to start your custom home journey in Charleston.

1. The “Great Rate Reset” of 2026

The primary headline for the 2026 market is the stabilization of mortgage rates. Economic forecasts, including data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and Redfin, project that 30-year fixed rates will average approximately 6.3% throughout 2026.

While we aren’t returning to the 3% anomaly of the early 2020s, this “new normal” provides something the market has lacked: predictability. * Increased Buying Power: A drop from 7% to 6.3% can save a homeowner hundreds of dollars a month on a luxury build, or allow for $50k–$100k more in high-end finishes like Wolf/Sub-Zero appliances or custom tabby accents.

The End of Volatility: With rates taking “the stairs” down rather than the “elevator” up, builders and lenders can offer more stable construction-to-permanent financing packages.

2. The Inventory Gap: Why You Can’t Find What You Want

Even with rates easing, Charleston’s inventory remains historically low. In sought-after zips like 29464 (Mt. Pleasant) or 29412 (James Island), the available “move-in ready” homes are often decades old and require immediate six-figure renovations.

The 2026 Reality: In 2025, new construction accounted for nearly one-third of all housing market value growth. In 2026, we expect that number to rise. Why? Because when you build on your lot with Stono, you aren’t fighting a bidding war over a 1980s ranch—you’re creating an asset that is:

Energy Compliant: Meeting the newest 2026 SC energy codes that older homes simply can’t match.
Resale Ready: Homes built with modern open-concept layouts and “wellness-first” features (like infrared saunas or advanced air filtration) command a 20% premium in the Charleston resale market.

3. Stabilized Supply Chains & Fixed-Price Confidence

One of the biggest hurdles of the 2021–2024 era was the “floating price” of materials. Lumber, windows, and high-end cabinetry were moving targets.

As we enter 2026, the global supply chain has normalized. At Stono Construction, this allows us to return to what we do best: exceptional communication and transparent budgeting. We can now lock in material costs with higher certainty, giving our clients the “Fixed-Price” peace of mind that was difficult to find just a few years ago.

4. The “Lifestyle Migration” Continues

Charleston remains a top-three destination for relocation from the Northeast and Midwest. This sustained demand means that even if the national economy fluctuates, local home values in the Lowcountry are projected to rise by 2–3% in 2026. Building now allows you to capture that appreciation from the moment you break ground. Whether it’s a marsh-front retreat on Johns Island or a modern family estate in Mt. Pleasant, your 2026 build is a hedge against future inflation.

Is 2026 Your Year?

The “Year of the Custom Build” is about more than just numbers; it’s about a market that finally favors planning over panic. If you’ve been sitting on a lot on Wadmalaw or eyeing a tear-down in West Ashley, 2026 is the window where interest rates, material stability, and local demand align.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the construction outlook for Charleston in 2026?

The outlook for 2026 is strong and steady, fueled by significant infrastructure projects and a continuous demand for residential housing in the Lowcountry. While not a “boom” year, the market is characterized by a return to normalcy with stable price growth and improved inventory.

What are the top construction trends in Charleston this year?

Key trends include a major shift toward digital-first project delivery, increased use of modular and prefabricated construction, and a heavy emphasis on sustainability and climate-resilient building materials to combat coastal environmental factors.

Is it a good time to build or buy in Charleston in 2026?

Yes. While mortgage rates remain elevated, the market has shifted to a “selection market” where buyers have more negotiating power and inventory is higher than in previous years. Starting early is strategic as land availability in prime areas continues to tighten.